That time of year again. 2012 housing forecast by the Austin Board of REALTORS and Home Builders Assn of Greater Austin.
Speakers: Eldon Rude-Metrostudy; Dr Greg Hallman-UT McCombs School; Jim Spencer, Chief Weathercaster KXAN News
My Summary Notes:
Spencer: We are in our second year of back to back "La Nina" which means mild winters and dry summers because of cooler oceans and hence the energy falls off and we don't get rain systems.. This has been the MOST INTENSE drought year since 1789 looking at tree rings. Historic heat wave , hottest on record since 1856. This is the only time in 100 yrs that ocean conditions have had the same configuration as the decade long drought in 1950s.
Hallman: Texas population to double to 46mm by 2060 There is still slack in the economy in area of capacity utilization. As consumers worry about jobs and housing. Businessis are spending capital on goods/equipment but not hiring because they can't export because of European debt crisis. Business corporate profits are up and they are flush with cash. Watch sovereigh debt of Greece, Portugal and Ireland. You can not finance a 4% growth rate with 10% deby. Austerity and delevering high debt kill groth and bring European recession. Good news is the world GDP: If China and India are growing at 10% , their CDP in 10 year will translate in to trillions of consumption of goods.
Rude: Calif, AZ, NV and FL lost massive wealth and equity in homes from 2005 to 2011 An index of $200k is now $136K price. Good for TX is we had no significant appreciation and therefore no significant depreciation. TX 2.2% growth rate is highest in the nation. 1 in 7 jobs in last year were made in TX. Austin MSA jobs 1.2% job gains 9,600 jobs and UNemployment only 6.6% Car sales up; office leasing 1 million sqft absorption in 2011. 1 in 7 home starts is in TX now and in 2011 TX had 63,399 single family home permits. AUstins unprecidented apartment market is our strength in last year. 96% occupance is up 2.5%; rent rates are up 7% to avg $1.15 sqft-more in trendy downtown condo class A spaces.
Our housing multiple listings: ONLY 4.6 months supply of listings 8,054 active listings, lowest since 2004-a healthy indicator. Demand due to incoming jobs and folks needing housing. Housing new starts only 6200 starts 2011. Move up suburban market doing best. Leander ISD and RRISD account for 36% of home build starts. Vacant developed lots trand up.
Population Migration to Austin , according to Atlas Van Lines stats, trends census growth and domestic in-migration to Texas.
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